Image Credit- AP
Naturally, the top four spots are the main emphasis as
the final league stage games of the 2023 ODI World Cup get near. But just for
the top six groups. The competition to place among the top eight and earn a
spot in the 2025 Champions Trophy is on for the remaining competitors. Six
teams, or those with eight points or more, have already guaranteed their spots.
Pakistan is among them; they would have qualified as hosts anyhow. Here’s where
the other four are positioned.
Netherlands will guarantee qualifying if they win
their final two games and finish with eight points. They will end on six points
if they defeat India and defeat England. If they win their final two games, Sri
Lanka and Bangladesh can tie the score. The final factor will be net run-rates,
which might not be in the Netherlands’ benefit. Even if they defeat England by
100 runs (after scoring 300), their current NRR of -1.398 will only increase to
-0.955. Which two teams advance will thereafter be decided by the margins of
the other results.
Netherlands will have difficulty qualifying if they
lose their two remaining games. It could be difficult for the other three clubs
even if they lose their next games and maintain a four-point lead.
There is still something to play for even though the
reigning champions have had an awful season. Champions Trophy qualification
remains at stake. However, even if they win their next two games, Bangladesh
and Sri Lanka could possibly tie them for first place on six points, so they
will still need assistance from other teams. With their current dismal NRR of
-1.504, England will need to win, and they will need to win by significant
margins.
If England loses to the Netherlands, they will need to
defeat Pakistan and hope that Bangladesh and Sri Lanka drop their remaining
games to maintain their four-point lead. The race for one berth will then come
down to NRR between Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and England.
The wisest course of action for Sri Lanka is to defeat
New Zealand and then hope that just one other side, at most, advances to the
finals. (In theory, if England wins its next two games, Bangladesh defeats
Australia, and the Netherlands defeats India, all four teams may end with six
points.) With their comparatively high NRR, Sri Lanka ought to be in a really
strong position after winning.
If they lose to New Zealand, they will have to hope
that two other teams don’t get to the six-point mark and that other outcomes go
their way.
Bangladesh are in a similar position to Sri Lanka, but
their NRR is currently the best among the four teams who are fighting for the
last two slots. Like Sri Lanka, their best bet will also be to beat Australia
and end on six points. If they finish on four, they won’t be out of it, but
plenty of other results will have to go their way.